LIVE
Argentina vs France
Semi-final · TxLINE ID txline-worldcup-2026-arg-fra
Adapter: mock
0-0
Odds and fair value
TxLINE Mock| Market | Outcome | Odds | Market prob | Model prob | EV | Kelly | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| arg-fra-winner | Argentina | 2.90 | 32% | 33% | -4.3% | 0% | 48% |
| arg-fra-winner | Draw | 2.72 | 34% | 34% | -7.5% | 0% | 44% |
| arg-fra-winner | France | 2.62 | 35% | 33% | -13.5% | 0% | 50% |
AI explanation
DETERMINISTICArgentina is the top model edge
Argentina shows -4.3% expected value with 48% confidence. unexplained market movement moved Draw odds shortened. The latest event context is draw probability rising.
Confidence
48%
Drivers
- -4.3% expected value
- 0% Kelly allocation after cap
- Unexplained market movement
Risk notes
- Mock data only; live TxLINE is not connected in this milestone
- Late match events can invalidate apparent edges quickly
No simulated allocation is recommended from the current snapshot.
Probability history
Market vs modelMarket 37%Model 34%Latest 44'
Kelly sizing
Risk capped at 5% of bankroll for demo safety.
Outcome
Argentina
Kelly
0%
Bankroll
$10,000
Max stake
$0
Sharp movement detector
Unexplained market movementDraw odds shortened from 3.05 to 2.72. The move equals -10.8%.
TxLINE event timeline
41'
Draw probability rising
The market is pricing a tighter first-half state.
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