LIVE
England vs Brazil
Quarter-final · TxLINE ID txline-worldcup-2026-eng-bra
Adapter: mock
2-1
Odds and fair value
TxLINE Mock| Market | Outcome | Odds | Market prob | Model prob | EV | Kelly | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| eng-bra-winner | England | 1.75 | 64% | 67% | +17.3% | 5% | 63% |
| eng-bra-winner | Draw | 12.50 | 9% | 7% | -12.5% | 0% | 60% |
| eng-bra-winner | Brazil | 4.25 | 27% | 26% | +10.5% | 3% | 53% |
| eng-bra-total | Over 2.5 | 1.58 | 61% | 69% | +9.0% | 5% | 86% |
| eng-bra-total | Under 2.5 | 2.42 | 40% | 31% | -25.0% | 0% | 86% |
AI explanation
DETERMINISTICEngland is the top model edge
England shows +17.3% expected value with 63% confidence. unexplained market movement moved England odds shortened. The latest event context is unexplained odds drift.
Confidence
63%
Drivers
- +17.3% expected value
- 5% Kelly allocation after cap
- Unexplained market movement
Risk notes
- Mock data only; live TxLINE is not connected in this milestone
- Late match events can invalidate apparent edges quickly
If simulated, keep stake at or below 5% of bankroll.
Probability history
Market vs modelMarket 57%Model 67%Latest 68'
Kelly sizing
Risk capped at 5% of bankroll for demo safety.
Outcome
England
Kelly
5%
Bankroll
$10,000
Max stake
$500
Sharp movement detector
Unexplained market movementEngland odds shortened from 2.28 to 1.75. The move equals -23.2%.
TxLINE event timeline
12'
Brazil goal
Brazil opened the scoring from a transition chance.
0xe12a9f
51'
Brazil red card
TxLINE event hash captured after a last-defender foul.
0x51baf0
67'
Unexplained odds drift
Brazil price drifted without a matching visible match event.
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