SCHEDULED
United States vs Spain
Round of 16 · TxLINE ID txline-worldcup-2026-usa-esp
Adapter: mock
0-0
Odds and fair value
TxLINE Mock| Market | Outcome | Odds | Market prob | Model prob | EV | Kelly | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| usa-esp-winner | United States | 3.65 | 26% | 29% | +5.8% | 2% | 49% |
| usa-esp-winner | Draw | 3.42 | 28% | 27% | -7.7% | 0% | 40% |
| usa-esp-winner | Spain | 2.05 | 46% | 44% | -9.8% | 0% | 46% |
AI explanation
DETERMINISTICUnited States is the top model edge
United States shows +5.8% expected value with 49% confidence. no sharp unexplained movement is above threshold. The latest event context is limited.
Confidence
49%
Drivers
- +5.8% expected value
- 2% Kelly allocation after cap
- Stable market movement
Risk notes
- Mock data only; live TxLINE is not connected in this milestone
- Late match events can invalidate apparent edges quickly
If simulated, keep stake at or below 2% of bankroll.
Probability history
Market vs modelNo history available yet.
Kelly sizing
Risk capped at 5% of bankroll for demo safety.
Outcome
United States
Kelly
2%
Bankroll
$10,000
Max stake
$221
Sharp movement detector
No sharp odds movement is currently above the configured threshold.